Winter 2026/27
Winter 2026–2027 outlook for Northwest Europe (including the UK): Mild and wet baseline with elevated storm risk, plus scope for colder interludes later. This forecast is based on the dominant teleconnections (primarily a historic-strength El Niño), supporting signals from seasonal models (ECMWF SEAS5 and multi-model Copernicus/C3S ensembles, with supporting context from systems analogous to GFS/CFS and ICON-style guidance), polar vortex/stratospheric signals, and historical analogues of strong El Niño winters. Confidence is moderate for the large-scale pattern (milder/wetter tendency) and lower for precise timing of cold snaps or individual storm sequences. Seasonal forecasts are probabilistic; individual months can deviate substantially. Primary Driver: Super/Historic El Niño. As of early November 2026, a very strong to potentially record El Niño is underway and still intensifying. Niño 3.4 anomalies have recently reached the +2.5 to +3.4°C range (with higher values farth...